[ET Net News Agency, 07 November 2024] The results of the U.S. presidential election
have settled, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which
should be no surprise. The market has refocused on whether the National People's Congress
will propose more major measures to revive the economy. Trump is expected to implement a
more stringent tariff policy against China. Chinese President Xi Jinping once again
emphasized efforts to achieve the economic and social development goals for the year. The
market hopes that the Chinese government would make greater efforts to stabilize the
economy. Stock prices of domestic demand and domestic housing rose during the session. The
Hang Seng Index erased losses and rose during the session. It was 20,776 in the half day,
up 237 points or 1.2%, recovering the 10-day SMA (approximately 20,598) and the 20-day SMA
(approximately 20,602), and the main board transaction volume was nearly HKD 104 billion .
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reported at 7,474, up 110 points or 1.5%. The Hang
Seng Tech Index reported 4,619, up 45 points or 1%.
"Wong Wai Ho: looking forward to the increase of the 10 trillion bailout measures
tomorrow"
Yesterday, Trump announced that he had won the US presidential election. The three major
Hong Kong stock indexes all closed down yesterday, and the trading volume finally exceeded
HKD 200 billion. Although the Hang Seng Index opened lower today, it has since risen all
the way up. Independent stock commentator Wong Wai Ho told ET Net News Agency that Hong
Kong stocks closed yesterday mainly because of concerns about Trump's increased pressure
on China after taking office. However, he believes that the impact of negative emotions is
not too great, and initial support was seen at 20,300 yesterday and today. Moreover, the
market is also looking forward to tomorrow's National People's Congress Standing Committee
meeting that may announce a 10 trillion bailout measure.
He continued that the market generally believes that in order to counter Trump's future
suppression, the amount of the bailout measures announced at the National People's
Congress Standing Committee meeting tomorrow will be increased. He expects that there will
be new stimulus for Hong Kong stocks tomorrow, but the specific trend will have to wait
for the outcome of the meeting. For the time being, Hong Kong stocks will still maintain a
range of 20,000 to 21,000 points.
Trump deals are back. Wong Wai Ho said that it mainly affects US stocks and has a
smaller impact on Hong Kong stocks. Combining the information from the U.S. election and
the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting, he believes that investors can
reduce their investment in stocks related to tariffs and Sino-U.S. trade, and pay a little
attention to domestic demand and consumption-related stocks. It is expected that such
stocks will benefit from the stimulation of the economic related policies of the National
People's Congress Standing Committee meeting. .
"Cryptocurrency investment requires separate investments and investors should pay
attention to the scale of investment"
Trump has repeatedly stated his support for digital assets, and cryptocurrencies
continue to do well, with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching the USD 76,000 mark for the first time.
Wong Wai Ho said that virtual currencies themselves are highly volatile and it is
difficult to predict the duration of this upward trend. He continued that the market had
generally believed that virtual currencies would replace the U.S. dollar and become the
mainstream currency in the medium to long term. But judging from the current situation,
virtual currencies and the US dollar seem to be running in parallel. If the U.S. dollar
moves higher, virtual currencies are expected to continue pushing higher. However, he
reminded that due to the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, it is not recommended to
chase high now. Investors can continue to pay attention and control the bets. It is best
to divide your bets. Wong Wai Ho suggested that it is better for such assets to account
for 15% of the total investment.
As for Hong Kong ETFs related to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Wong Wai Ho also holds the same
investment advice. He believes that if there is no stock in hand and investors who want to
get involved in cryptocurrencies should buy at most one bet now. The should wait for a
subsequent drop to 5-10% before buying.
"Photovoltaic stocks are subject to fundamentals, and stock price recovery is challenging"
Trump pursues a policy stance of "traditional energy first" and attaches great
importance to traditional energy industries such as fossil fuels. Photovoltaic stocks have
been sold for two consecutive days. Wong Wai Ho said that the previous surge in
photovoltaic stocks was mainly due to the outflow of favourable rumours, but the
fundamentals of photovoltaic stocks are not very good. Due to the long-term overcapacity
of silicon materials, the loss situation of most photovoltaic stocks has not improved, so
the pullback of photovoltaic stocks is reasonable.
He expects that even if good news is released from the policy front in the future, it
will only provide short-term support. Moreover, under the heavy restrictions such as
countervailing and anti-dumping in the United States, it will not be easy for the
photovoltaic industry to reverse the current situation. Regarding the long-term trend of
photovoltaic stocks, Wong Wai Ho still maintains a cautious attitude. In terms of
individual stocks, he believes that the support level of Xinyi Solar (00968) can be
reached back to the low of HKD 3.01 in October, and the support level of GCL Tech (03800)
is HKD 1.3.